Sunday, December 30, 2007

Will The U.S. Invade Pakistan?

Background

Pakistan acquires nuclear weapons in 1987, the result of a program started by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, grandfather of Benazir Bhutto.

In 1999 Military General Pervez Musharaff seizes power of Pakistan in a military coup d'etat, with active monetary and military aid from the United States. Reasonably, U.S. relations with Musharaff can be seen as a preventive safeguard, ensuring control over the nation's nuclear arsenal.

Recently

America's close relations with military dictator Musharaff has continuously been criticized,

By proxy, the international pressure has resulted in Musharaff removing his military uniform, effectively stripping himself (at least in theory) of his military executive power.

In exchange, he took up office as civil leader and president of Pakistan, and announces democratic election on January 8th of 2008.

Meanwhile, Benazir Butto, previous prime minister and a national hero of sorts, has returned from her self-imposed exile in order to run for presidency.

During a campaign rally on December 27th 2007 Benazir Butto is assassinated. The following days have seen much confusion, anger, violence and revelry on part of the Pakistani population.

Conspiracy theories flourish, and interviews from Pakistani streets portray a mixture of beliefs as for who bears the responsibility - anywhere from Al Qaida to Musharaff.

Discussions ensue whether elections should be held as planned or not, now that the oppositional party's primary leader is dead.

No one knows what will happen.

Next ?

Some scenarios:

  1. The people of Pakistan accept neither cancellation of elections nor Musharaff. Political instability ensues and in order to protect nuclear arsenals from militant Islamist groups in Pakistan, the U.S. invades Pakistan.

  2. Musharaff quells civil unrest, and his dictatorship commences and remains in place for the time being.

  3. The U.S. announces west/self-protective intentions and a detailed roadmap to when and how they will invade Pakistan, effectively imposing on their sovereign right.

And various nuances of the three. I would be interested in hearing what disagreements people may have with these - please comment.

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